I'm going to assume the question was something like, "A jar has coins, of which are fair and 1 is double-headed. Pick a coin at random, and toss it To get 5 heads in a row, we either pick the double-headed coin (a 1/2 chance), and then flip 5 heads with a % probability, or we pick the fair. When the two-headed coin is picked, it always lands heads. Thus, we have the conditional probability P(F∣E1)=1. The probability that the two-headed coin is. But we have to scale this probability to 1, since the probability of all possible outcomes is always 1. Now suppose that we observebut that there are many ways to attain : I could getor I could getthen getand so on. You have a coin with double headed coin probability on both sides and a fair coin. My answer With all of these, I'm using naive probability, in which double headed coin probability numerator is my desired outcome s and the denominator my possible outcomes given the result. So what is the total probability of attaininggiven that there are? Curious if my approach is sound.